Cincinnati Bengals
AFC North · 6-11 (2025) · Draft: Top 10
37.5
Pass att/g
23
Rush att/g
26
PPG
Coaching & Scheme
Offensive Identity
HC: Zac Taylor (age 42, year 8; career 52-63-1, 5-2 playoffs)
OC: Dan Pitcher (Burrow's former QB coach; retained after interviews with CLE and TB)
Pitcher's focus is reducing turnovers (17 INTs in 2025) and expanding early-down aggression. The offense plans to significantly increase under-center packages on early downs to generate more explosive pass plays — Burrow has completed just one 20+ yard pass on early downs from under center over the last three seasons, suggesting a large untapped opportunity. More under-center could also boost play-action effectiveness and improve the run game's efficiency. Play-action and pre-snap motion remain central to the passing attack when Burrow is healthy (motion rate climbed from 20% in 2022 to 53% in 2025). CIN has been a pass-first offense for years, consistently ranking top-10 in pass attempts per game. The late-season run game surge (4th in rushing success rate over the final 9 weeks of 2025) suggests the OL and Chase Brown found a rhythm that could carry into 2026.
5-Year Trends
Offensive Analytics
| Year | Record | Pass/G | Rush/G | Pass Yds | Pass TD | Rush Yds | Rush TD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-11 | 37.6 | 22.4 | 4,244 | 36 | 1,591 | 11 | 24.4 |
| 2024 | 10-7 | 38.4 | 22.4 | 4,918 | 43 | 1,574 | 11 | 27.8 |
| 2023 | 9-8 | 36.2 | 22.5 | 4,257 | 27 | 1,527 | 12 | 21.5 |
| 2022 | 12-4 | 38.1 | 24.9 | 4,520 | 35 | 1,528 | 14 | 26.1 |
| 2021 | 10-7 | 32.6 | 25.6 | 4,806 | 36 | 1,742 | 16 | 27.1 |
Depth Chart
Roster
Burrow has played 17 games just once in five NFL seasons, and another turf toe injury in 2025 limited him to 8 games, though his per-game production (17 TD, 16.8 FPG) was still strong. When healthy for a full year in 2024, he threw 43 touchdowns and averaged 21.9 FPG, which is elite. The situation around him is excellent: Chase and Higgins are both locked in long-term, Chase Brown has emerged as a three-down back, OC Dan Pitcher returns after being retained over interest from other teams, and the offensive line returns all five starters for the first time under this regime. The only real dynasty concern is durability, and it is a significant one. Three shortened seasons in five years creates a meaningful discount on a quarterback whose healthy ceiling is top-3 in the league.
| Year | QB1 | QB2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | FPG | Share | Player | FPG | Share | |
| 2025 | Burrow | 16.8 | 44% | Flacco | 13.4 | 40% |
| 2024 | Burrow | 21.9 | 100% | Browning | -0.1 | -0% |
| 2023 | Burrow | 14.7 | 50% | Browning | 16.0 | 49% |
| 2022 | Burrow | 21.9 | 100% | Allen | 0.8 | 0% |
| 2021 | Burrow | 19.6 | 96% | Allen | 2.8 | 4% |
2026 Projected Allocation
Where the Targets Go
~640 total pass attempts · 17 games · 37.5 att/g
Rush Attempt Distribution
~391 total rush attempts · 23.0 att/g
2026 Team Projections
Per-Game Rates
| Stat | Value | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Pass att/g | 37.5 | PROE 65-72% since 2022; pass-first identity unchanged |
| Rush att/g | 23 | 3-year flat at 22.4; slight bump for Brown/OL improvement |
| Cmp% | 67.0% | Burrow healthy avg ~69%; discount for deeper throw profile |
| Pass yds/g | 273.8 | Burrow healthy YPA: 7.3 reflects full-health baseline |
| Pass TD/g | 2.06 | Below 2024 outlier (6.6%), above regression baseline |
| Rush yds/g | 100.1 | Brown RYOE positive; late-season OL run blocking surge |
| PPG | 26 | Above regression (23.6); Burrow + weapons drive rebound |
Season totals: 638 pass att, 391 rush att, 4,655 pass yds, 35 pass TD, 13 INT, 1,702 rush yds, 12 rush TD
Key Assumptions
- ·Burrow plays 17 games healthy (turf toe fully healed)
- ·All 5 OL starters return (Brown extended through 2028, Risner re-signed)
- ·Under-center increase could boost YPA via play-action explosives (upside risk)
- ·Late-season run game efficiency carries into 2026
- ·WR3 upgraded via draft (rounds 2-4); shifts ~20-30 targets from Iosivas
- ·TD regression from 2024 peak (43 pass TD) but above league average given Burrow + Chase/Higgins
Defense & Game Script
Defensive Outlook
Losing Hendrickson (17.5 sacks in 2024) to Baltimore is the biggest defensive blow. Mafe is a replacement, not an upgrade — his sack totals have declined each year since 2023. Cook is a clear upgrade at safety and should help the run defense immediately. The post-bye improvement in 2025 suggests Golden's scheme can work with better talent. The draft will be defense-heavy (LB, slot CB, DL). Realistic expectation: improvement from 28.9 to ~24-26 PPG allowed. Without a true elite pass rusher, this defense won't generate enough pressure to flip games.
Game Script Impact
CIN's offensive talent (Burrow-Chase-Higgins-Brown) means they should be competitive in most games, but the defense could create negative game scripts early. Negative game scripts actually benefit the pass-heavy skill players — more passing volume for Chase and Higgins. Brown's receiving work also benefits from trailing game scripts. Expect CIN to be in a lot of shootouts, which inflates fantasy scoring for the passing game. Until the defense proves it can stop people, opposing offenses will produce against CIN — this was the 4th-most-targeted defense in 2025.
Offseason Moves